Automotive World’s month-to-month international mild automobile gross sales forecast offers a snapshot of previous and future gross sales volumes damaged down by area
World mild automobile gross sales snapshot
The foremost financial forecasters have been making upward revisions to their outlooks for 2024. In March Fitch Scores elevated its forecast for international GDP development in 2024 by 0.3pts (from December standing) to 2.4% and The Convention Board raised its forecast by 0.2pts (from February standing) to three%. Earlier the IMF raised its forecast by 0.2pts to three.1%.
Reflecting/contributing to the enhancing outlook, throughout February 2024 a lot of the prime LV markets confirmed a year-on-year improve, although three of the High-16 (China, Japan, and South Korea) noticed declines.
The lower in China (PC solely and domestically produced solely) was anticipated, as a result of timing of the Lunar new 12 months. In Japan a lot of the decline was linked to the certification scandal. On the different finish of the size, gross sales in Russia grew by over 80% because the market continues to be distorted by the results of the battle in Ukraine. Amongst different markets, a majority noticed double-digit development charges, and this holds true for the year-to-date image.
Reflecting this early power of demand, our total forecast for international demand in 2024 has been elevated by 0.3pts from prior standing, persevering with to anticipate additional development however at a considerably slower tempo than 2023 because the pent-up demand has now been met.
World mild automobile gross sales replace
| Mild Car gross sales (000s) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024(f) | Change -v- prior 12 months | Change -v- prior standing (pts) | Notes |
| China | 24,605.1 | 23,367.3 | 24,481.8 | 25,338.0 | 3.5% | 0.3 | Manufacturing facility output and retail gross sales beat expectations in Jan-Feb. Client confidence in Feb improved; First time for six months. Nonetheless, enterprise confidence slipped. |
| N. America (US & Canada) | 16,720.1 | 15,380.4 | 17,041.5 | 17,752.0 | 4.2% | 0.1 | Client confidence excessive. Demand helped by value competitors and incentives however constrained by excessive rates of interest for loans. |
| EU+EFTA+UK | 13,798.0 | 12,937.0 | 14,838.7 | 15,274.0 | 2.9% | 0.3 | Gross sales development slowing however nonetheless constructive in 2024. LCVs out-performing. |
| S. America | 4,652.0 | 4,833.0 | 5,161.6 | 5,360.0 | 3.8% | 0.8 | 30% rise in Brazil in Feb. |
| India | 3,357.3 | 3,929.3 | 4,212.2 | 4,302.0 | 2.1% | 0.5 | Progress underpinned by new product launches and steady market sentiment. |
| Japan | 4,361.5 | 4,121.4 | 4,632.8 | 4,730.0 | 2.1% | 0.0 | Demand down 16% Jan-Feb, however client and enterprise confidence stays excessive, notably willingness to purchase sturdy items. |
| Asean | 2,455.0 | 2,794.0 | 2,824.7 | 2,875.0 | 1.8% | 0.0 | GDP in most international locations anticipated to rise at quicker price than 2023, however LV demand typically weaker in first two months. |
| Center East | 2,408.4 | 2,451.8 | 2,640.6 | 2,624.1 | -0.6% | 0.7 | Double-digit decline anticipated in Turkey (regional chief) after two robust years. |
| RoW | 7,827.5 | 7,025.7 | 7,362.9 | 7,427.8 | 0.9% | 0.0 | |
| Whole | 80,185.0 | 76,839.9 | 83,196.9 | 85,682.9 | 3.0% | 0.3 | |
| Change | -4.2% | 8.3% | 3.0% |
LV Gross sales, High-5 markets: Feb-24 -v- yr in the past (models, 000s)
LV Gross sales, High-5 markets: YTD Feb 2024 -v- yr in the past (models, 000s)
LV Gross sales, Subsequent-11 markets: Feb 24 -v- yr in the past (models, 000s)
LV Gross sales, Subsequent-11 markets: YTD Feb 24 -v- yr in the past (models, 000s)
High-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: Feb-24 -v- yr in the past (%)
High-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: YTD Feb-24 -v- yr in the past (%)
High-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: Feb-24 -v- yr in the past (000 models)
High-16 markets, change in LV Gross sales: YTD Feb-24 -v- yr in the past (000 models)
